Currently, Predicto tracks around 150 stocks, including the entire Nasdaq-100 list. For every single one of those stocks we maintain at least 3 different Deep Learning models, sometimes more based on our experimentation. This means we maintain and occasionally retrain more than 450 models. On top of this, a forecast with an explanation is generated daily for each stock/model pair.
Experimenting with the combined forecasting power of all our models can be a lot of fun.
By combining forecasts and trades generated by our
from all models related to Nasdaq-100 list,
we are able to compile a forecast score. This can be applied to any group of stocks, or even
portfolios. We call those scores
and they indicate the stock market feeling with a 15-days ahead horizon.
Predicto uses all Nasdaq-100 stocks forecasts to derive
Nasdaq-100 Outlook Score.
FAANGM Outlook Score is derived from
Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google and Microsoft forecasts.
China Outlook Score is derived from Chinese companies stocks trading in US.
As we track more and more stocks, the list of Outlook Scores will grow.
In general, a positive score predicts that prices will go up, and a negative score that prices will go down at some point in the next 15 days.
Always keep in mind that those models and scores are experimental.
Please read our disclaimer carefully.
We designed a dedicated
section where you can inspect the latest Outlook Scores and explore how they change over time.
Below you can see an example for
Nasdaq-100 Outlook Score
To generate these scores, we calculate the weighted average of 15-day forecasted returns from a group of stocks. The weight of each stock is based on its market cap and revenue.
To simplify, if we had 3 stocks (s1, s2, s3) with weights (w1, w2, w3) then the final score would be:
Outlook Score = (s1_forecasted_return * w1) + (s2_forecasted_return * w2) + (s3_forecasted_return * w3)
Here is an example:
Stock1 Forecasted 15-day return = 1.5%, Weight = 0.4
Stock2 Forecasted 15-day return = 0.5%, Weight = 0.4
Stock3 Forecasted 15-day return = 9.0%, Weight = 0.2
So in the above case we'll get
Outlook Score = (0.015 x 0.4) + (0.005 x 0.4) + (0.09 x 0.2) = + 2.6 %
We are planning to scale and support more stocks and ETFs in the future covering the entire stock market spectrum. As we grow, we'll be able to generate more and more usefull insights.
Stay tuned, Stay safe!